Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
